Europe Still Making News

The markets closed out the week on a strong note, Europe remained the primary topic of trade.

Eurozone officials agreed to tighter fiscal controls and also to make funds available to the International Monetary Fund for use in the rapid deployment of the European Financial Stability Facility, rather than the challenge of establishing changes to the Eurozone treaty.

Reports of progress in Europe were complemented by encouraging inflation data from China. The preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for December from the University of Michigan improved to a six-month high of 67.7.

The bounce on Friday helped stocks offset part of the prior session’s slide, which was the worst one-day drop for the stock market in about two weeks. To little surprise, that decline was driven by headlines from Europe.

Who Needed a Rally, We Did

What a week, after a 5% slide last week, stocks rallied back by climbing almost 8% for their best weekly performance in more than three years.

 Monday stocks surged almost 3% in response to news that Europe’s authorities had discussed a fiscal pact that could make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable. Again all about Europe.

 Tuesday was pretty uneventful, but Wednesday was positive, when China trimmed its reserve requirement ratio and then several major central banks announced coordinated actions intended to lower the pricing on temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements.

 Thursday proved uneventful.

 New jobs data came in as expected, and the Unemployment Rate fell to 8.6%, which is less than the 9.0% rate that had been broadly expected.

 Next week will be a lot of central bank news including the ECB on Thursday, which will be of great interest given increased expectations for another rate cut.

 I’ll be watching

Gobble, Gobble

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Usually Holiday weeks are slow with not a lot of action, but last week was different.

Markets were closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving.

Widespread weakness on Wednesday resulted in a sell-off that sent stocks to their lowest level in more than a month. The sell off came as a reaction to the Fed’s decision to increase capital controls for banks. This was just the straw that broke the camel’s back.  .

On Tuesday stocks overcame disappointment related to downward revision to third quarter GDP, but a loss of momentum left the major averages to roll over. Stocks managed to rebound because of a combination of technical support and a headline that the IMF has established a new liquidity line, but the effort still failed to give stocks a positive finish.

The talk was still mainly about concerns over financial conditions in Europe after Moody’s issued cautious comments about France’s debt rating outlook.

 Europe has been all I seem to talk about, but what happens overseas has an impact here, gatta love the global economy.

All About Europe

Stocks had one of their work weeks, DOW down almost 3% and S&P 500 down 4%.

 Markets responded to the stabilization of yields on the debt of Spain and Italy and renewed strength in the euro. Buying in Europe eventually lost momentum, leaving the region’s major averages to settle with varied losses.

 Another week all about Europe

Europe Holding

Stocks finished the week on a strong note, booking gains of about 2%. The effort marked the fourth advance in five sessions.

The University of Michigan, which posted its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for November. The Survey improved to 64.2 from 60.9 in the prior month, although it had only been expected to come in at 61.3.

The Market reacted to improved market conditions in Europe and news of a successful debt auction by Italy. Although the auction came at a cost, demand for the country’s debt was taken by the market as a sign of confidence.

Wednesday was a hard day, it was the worst one-day percentage drop for the S&P 500 in about three months. Many were spooked by Italy’s debt yields climbing to record levels and the notion that Italy’s economy is far too large to be aided by a bailout.

Concerns about Italy and its ability to establish a unified political front were also at play as the country looked to replace its prime minister, but stocks were still able to overcome those concerns and score strong gains.

Greece was in focus at the start of the week, when it was announced that Prime Minister Papandreou would step down from his post. Later in the week it was announced that Lukas Papademos will succeed him. Papandreou’s resignation came after he had unnerved many officials, and markets for that matter, by proposing a referendum for the country’s bailout package.

As far as data goes the jobless claims was lower than expected, trade deficit lower than expected and most corporate earnings reports were higher than expected.

Overall a great week.

All About the Greeks

It was another rollercoaster week last week due to continued concerns over Europe debt, and specifically Greece. The Greek prime minister announced that he would call for a referendum to allow Greek citizens to vote if the country would accept the previously announced bailout package. This announcement shook the euro zone and renewed fears of instability, and the markets reacted.

This announcement however faded as the week went on and the markets were able to have a recovery, but the week ended negative.

Over on our shores the US Federal Reserve met last week, and decided to hold current rates. They also however lowered the forecast for us growth over the next few years. This is a fact the markets have known for a time now, so the fed is just catching up.

The markets are looking favorable that Europe will be able to keep a handle on the debt issues, more on that soon.

A Debt Deal

Last week’s announcement that policymakers in Europe came to a temporary agreement shot stock higher. The agreement is still lacking in some details, but hey it’s something. There are still some long term concerns about how Europe is going to deal with the debt issues as their economic growth is projected to be low.

At home we continue to see economic data that is positive. We are showing signs of growth, no matter how small. Business are starting to invest more and spend more on new equipment.

The market outlook is improving, the only drawback I can see is that we had such a sharp increase over a pretty short period of time the market may need to do a little digesting.

Up Up and Away

Stocks up as investors feel that a solution in Europe is on the way. Also corporate earnings have been better than expected on many fronts. So far 62% of companies have reported higher than expected revenues and 71% have had higher earnings than Wall Street estimates. Both combined lead to a great week in the markets.

But there is still the 800 lb Gorilla in the room, Europe. This past weekend representatives from the 27 members of the European Union met to discuss resolutions. They say they will have a package to propose by mid-week.

As mentioned last week, the market has been receiving positive economic data including corporate earnings, jobless claims and retail sales. This is just more data to support the idea that the US is NOT going to have a double dip recession.

Going forward we need to keep our eyes on Europe, because in our global economy what happens over there has impact over here.

 

 

Less Fear About Europe

The markets had a great week last week. The broad markets rose because investor fears over the European debt crisis were not as high as previous weeks. US Treasuries did struggle.

Again the main issue on investors minds is the debt crisis in Europe. And over the last few weeks we can see how closely linked the outcome of our markets are with the plans to help the debt crisis in Europe. Markets are putting a great deal of faith that Europe will find a solution to their issues. Right now it is a wait and see game. It reminds me of when we had to deal with the debt ceiling issue, and one comment taken out of context was all it took for the market to go down a few hundred points.

On the home front we have received some positive economic data, initial jobless claims were down, retail sales figures were up. This means that more people are working and more people are spending, just what we need. Corporate earnings are also coming in on positive notes, all good news for our economy.

 

 

Markets Rebound

The markets rebounded somewhat from the previous week’s declines. Investor sentiment benefitted from some better-than-expected economic data and a sense that European policymakers were making some progress.

Last week’s data was generally stronger than expected. Data from the auto industry, construction and manufacturing all showed signs of improvement. But most important was some improvement in the job market. I have said since I started this blog how important job ‘s are, people without one really understand this. Jobless claims have come back down closer to those levels seen during July. Friday’s employment report was also somewhat reassuring, with a 103,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment level was unchanged at 9.1%.

Housing is still a major drain on the economy. There is just a huge inventory of homes and people are not buying them fast enough. Some reasons for this are people are out of work or they just cannot qualify. You also see a lot of people that want a short sale house (what they call them now). I can remember a few years ago very few people knew what a short sale was, now everyone wants one. We are not going to see price increases in most areas till the supply of homes matches closer to the demand for them.

Europe is still dealing with their debt issues, but progress seems to be coming, although slow.